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type: "weekly"
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publishedAt: "2026-08-28T16:52:41.050Z"
updatedAt: "2026-08-28T16:52:41.050Z"
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---

# WickedDesk Weekly #011: Nvidia delivers, cloud leads

Nvidia confirmed demand for AI compute with $96.2 billion in revenue. Friday's price action shows why a strong report is only the first test. Cloud Computing leads the theme ranking, while the early broad-market gains were sold by 12:25 ET. QQQ is down 0.69% and IWM is down 1.32%. The NAAIM Exposure Index is at 102, showing very aggressive positioning among active U.S. investment managers.

**Topics:** Market rotation, Relative strength, Momentum swing trading, Weekly preparation

## Strong reports, but no broad confirmation

Nvidia showed on Thursday how much demand remains in the AI buildout. Revenue reached $96.2 billion and Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion. The stock is giving back roughly 1.8% intraday Friday. Marvell also reported record revenue, but its shares are down nearly 8%. The report is only the first test. Price provides the confirmation.

By 12:25 ET, the early gains had been fully sold. SPY is at $769.35 and down 0.23%, while QQQ is at $716.16 and down 0.69%. The Russell 2000 ETF IWM is at its session low of $295.84 and down 1.32%. DIA is down 0.11%. From their intraday highs, SPY has lost 0.76%, QQQ 1.10% and IWM 1.50%. This is a clear intraday reversal, but not yet a broad volatility shock.

## Yellow 62 offers room, not a free pass

The market signal improved from 58 in Thursday's draft to 62. At the same time, the two-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.30% after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech. That pressure matters most for stocks whose valuations depend heavily on future earnings.

The NAAIM Exposure Index is at 102. Participating active U.S. investment managers report their equity exposure each Wednesday. A reading of 100 represents fully invested exposure. Readings above 100 are possible through leverage or derivatives. At 102, the group is slightly more than fully invested on average.

This is not an automatic sell signal. It does show that positioning is already very aggressive. A pullback can lead to more risk being reduced from this starting point than from a defensive equity allocation. I am therefore keeping the watchlist short. Price should be above the 200-day moving average, the group should lead, and the report needs confirmation in price. In the default chart, the 200-day is the red line. Below it, the long-term trend is still working against the trade.

| Read | Point | Value |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Later index trade is weaker | Market signal | Yellow 62 at 11:31 ET |
| 0.76% below the session high | SPY | $769.35 / -0.23% |
| 1.10% below the session high | QQQ | $716.16 / -0.69% |
| 1.50% below the session high | IWM | $295.84 / -1.32% |
| Nearly flat, but below the session high | DIA | $534.62 / -0.11% |
| Short yields are rising | Rates | 2-year near 4.30% |
| Managers are slightly leveraged long | NAAIM | 102 |
| Leadership remains narrow | Themes | Cloud Computing rank 1 |

## Nvidia's growth is broadening

Nvidia's revenue rose from $68.1 billion in Q4 FY26 to $96.2 billion in Q2 FY27. Of the additional $28.1 billion, $20.2 billion came from AI clouds, industrial and enterprise customers. That is roughly 72% of the increase. Hyperscale revenue rose from $42.2 billion to $48.7 billion over the same period.

Demand is no longer coming only from the largest cloud companies. Regional AI clouds, enterprises and sovereign projects are also adding capacity. Nvidia expects $108 billion in current-quarter revenue. The stock is still down roughly 1.8% Friday. After Thursday's rally that is not a breakdown, but it is a reminder that growth and price confirmation are separate tests.

| Value | Change | Metric |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $96.2B | +106% year over year | Total revenue |
| $40.3B | +$20.2B since Q4 FY26 | AI clouds, industrial, enterprise |
| $48.7B | +$6.5B since Q4 FY26 | Hyperscale |
| $108B | plus or minus 2% | Q3 outlook |

## The buildout is tying up more capital

Nvidia reported $366 billion in commitments as of July 26. Supply and capacity account for $279 billion, primarily memory, up from $119 billion in the prior quarter. Maximum gross exposure under guarantees reaches $108.5 billion, including up to $105 billion connected to SB Energy's PORTS-Pike campus.

These amounts do not all become payable immediately. They show how far the buildout has expanded. Nvidia is securing memory, data center capacity, power and sites while taking on some partner credit risk. That supports growth, but also increases capital commitments. For an individual stock, the market still has to confirm that spending in price.

## Cloud leads while cybersecurity gives back part of its jump

Cloud Computing remains at rank 1. The theme is up 1.7% intraday Friday, 19.6% over one month and 33.7% over three months. One-month breadth stands at 95%. TEAM, ESTC, OKTA and PANW lead the group.

Artificial Intelligence ranks second. Cybersecurity ranks third but is down 1.4% today. That is not a contradiction. The intermediate group trend remains strong while several stocks give back part of their earnings gaps. Theme strength still needs the individual chart.

| RS | Rank | Theme | Leaders | One_Month | Three_Months |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 78.6 | 1 | Cloud Computing | TEAM, ESTC, OKTA, PANW | +19.6% | +33.7% |
| 74.2 | 2 | Artificial Intelligence | DELL, MU, PATH, CRWD | +17.7% | +14.4% |
| 80.3 | 3 | Cybersecurity | OKTA, PANW, CRWD, QLYS | +12.5% | +26.1% |
| 82.0 | 4 | Gold Miners | EGO, AU, IAG, NEM | +38.4% | +17.8% |
| 78.3 | 5 | Copper Miners | ERO, HBM, FCX, SCCO | +16.4% | +10.5% |
| 81.0 | 7 | Silver Miners | HL, CDE, FSM, AG | +38.8% | +12.6% |

## CrowdStrike and Okta are holding different parts of their jumps

CrowdStrike and Okta both reported strong results this week. Their Friday reactions have separated. CRWD is down roughly 4.2% intraday. OKTA is nearly flat and trades less than 1% below its 52-week high.

Both stocks now trade above their 50-day moving averages and well above their 200-day lines. The long-term structures are better than they appeared in Thursday's draft. CRWD needs buyers to return above the breakout area. OKTA is holding better, but the stock is no longer early after its sharp advance.

| Chart | Friday | Report | Symbol |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 50-day, about 5% below high | about -4.2% | Revenue +26%, net new ARR +51% | CRWD |
| above 50-day, near 52-week high | nearly flat | Revenue +11%, FCF $227M | OKTA |
| above 200-day, about 5% below high | about -1.8% | Revenue +106% | NVDA |
| below 50-day, about 33% below high | about -8.0% | Record revenue +37% | MRVL |

## Okta is holding its gap better than CrowdStrike

OKTA is only slightly lower Friday. Price stands roughly 23% above the 50-day moving average and almost 74% above the 200-day. Its chart improved substantially after the report.

I do not chase a move like this. I want to see price tighten for several days while volume contracts. That can create a new base. Until then, OKTA is a strong watchlist stock, but not an automatic entry at the current price.

## Health remains first while Technology moves to rank 4

Health Care leads the sector ranking. Energy follows at rank 2 and Financials at rank 3. Technology has improved to rank 4 from Thursday's draft. The sector is still down roughly 0.5% intraday Friday while Communication and Financials perform better.

One strong Nvidia report does not lift every technology stock. Cloud and selected AI names can lead while other semiconductors and software stocks fall. That is why I move from sector to theme to individual stock.

| RS | Rank | Today | Sector | One_Month | Three_Months |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 57.2 | 1 | -0.9% | Health Care | +6.7% | +10.0% |
| 56.8 | 2 | -0.4% | Energy | +7.2% | +1.6% |
| 55.8 | 3 | +0.3% | Financials | +1.0% | +7.4% |
| 57.9 | 4 | -0.5% | Technology | +6.8% | +0.5% |
| 49.7 | 7 | +1.5% | Communication | +0.6% | +4.7% |

## Friday belongs to individual reactions

The major indexes are moving only modestly, but the swings underneath are much larger. Gap is up double digits after earnings and a leadership change at Old Navy. Affirm is higher after $1.17 billion in revenue and a better outlook. PayPal is down double digits after reports that a possible takeover effort was abandoned.

This is not a uniform risk-on session. Reports, expectations and special situations are deciding one stock at a time. For the watchlist, that is more useful than the small move in the S&P 500.

## Affirm combines the report with a positive reaction

AFRM is up roughly 7.7% intraday Friday. Price stands about 24% above the 200-day moving average, 7% above the 50-day and 17% below the 52-week high. Volume is well above normal.

Affirm checks more boxes than most earnings stocks today: solid results, a strong reaction, price above the key moving averages and enough distance from the high to form another base. The stock still has to hold the gap. Only then does the report become a durable watchlist candidate.

## PayPal shows the other side of a special situation

PYPL is down roughly 11.6% intraday Friday. Reports say Stripe and Advent are no longer pursuing a possible takeover. Price remains just above the 200-day moving average, but the session has changed the structure sharply.

A rumor can move price quickly, but it is harder to plan around than a published company report. After a drop of this size, PayPal does not move straight onto the long watchlist. Price first needs to show where buyers return and whether the 200-day holds.

## Miners remain strong but are lower Friday

Gold Miners gained 38.4% in one month, Silver Miners 38.8% and Copper Miners 16.4%. All three themes are down between roughly 0.8% and 2.0% intraday Friday.

After a strong month, that is normal so far. New watchlist entries still need a controlled pullback or a tight base. A high theme rank alone is not a good entry after an advance of nearly 40%.

## Three stocks are set aside after the first review

Marvell delivered strong numbers but is down roughly 8% and trades below its 50-day. PayPal is down double digits and first needs to defend the 200-day. CrowdStrike retains a strong long-term structure but is giving back part of its earnings gap.

None is excluded permanently. They simply lack confirmation for a new entry today. The report explains why a stock deserves attention. Price decides whether it moves up the watchlist.

| Reason | Symbol |
| --- | --- |
| record revenue, but about -8% and below 50-day | MRVL |
| double-digit drop after takeover report | PYPL |
| giving back part of its earnings gap | CRWD |

## What Friday confirms by 12:25 ET

The first hour now looks different from the early trade. SPY, QQQ and DIA have turned negative. IWM is weaker and trades at its session low. The weakness has therefore spread from small caps to the large-cap indexes, although the declines there remain limited. Cloud Computing still leads the intermediate theme ranking even as selected cybersecurity stocks pull back. Strong reports are not being bought indiscriminately: Nvidia is lower, Marvell is down sharply, and Affirm is higher.

These are intraday figures from August 28, 2026. The US session is still open. They are not closing prices. Open values remain open and are never replaced with zero or an estimate.

| Time | Check | Event |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 12:25 ET | SPY -0.23%, QQQ -0.69%, DIA -0.11% | Large-cap indexes |
| 12:25 ET | IWM -1.32% and at its session low | Small caps |
| 12:25 ET | QQQ 1.10% and IWM 1.50% below their highs | Intraday reversal |

## Marvell beats its guide and the stock falls anyway

Marvell reported $2.739 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue. That was 37% above a year earlier, a new record and $39 million above the midpoint of its own guidance. Data Center revenue grew 46%. The company expects $3.15 billion in current-quarter revenue.

The stock is still down roughly 8% Friday. Price had rallied sharply into the report, leaving expectations high. This is the week's clearest lesson: a company can report a record and its stock can still fall. Marvell lacks price confirmation for a new entry today.

| Read | Value | Metric |
| --- | --- | --- |
| +37% year over year | $2.739B | Q2 FY27 revenue |
| growth accelerated | +46% | Data Center |
| plus or minus 5% | $3.15B | Q3 outlook |
| report not confirmed in price | about -8.0% | Friday intraday |

## Warsh puts inflation back at the center

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh described the economy as resilient and the labor market as stable. At the same time, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure stands at 3.7%. Better summer readings were not enough for him to conclude that the underlying trend has clearly improved.

The bond market reacted more than stocks. The two-year Treasury yield rose from 4.22% before the speech to roughly 4.30%. That is the more important part for growth stocks. Higher short-term yields tighten valuations even when the S&P 500 rises modestly on the same day.

## Next week brings Broadcom, ISM and the jobs report

Tuesday brings ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS. Broadcom reports after Wednesday's close. ISM Services follows Thursday, and the August US employment report arrives Friday at 08:30 ET.

Broadcom provides the next company-level test for the AI buildout. ISM and payrolls will shape expectations for both growth and rates. Strong economic data only helps equities if yields do not rise sharply at the same time.

| Day | Event | Meaning |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Tue, Sep 1 | ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS | Growth and labor demand |
| Wed, Sep 2 | Broadcom Q3 FY26 | AI networking and outlook |
| Thu, Sep 3 | ISM Services | Broad economic check |
| Fri, Sep 4 | US employment report | Jobs, wages and yields |

## Friday's reactions shape Monday's watchlist

OKTA is holding its earnings gap better than CRWD so far. AFRM combines strong results with a clear positive reaction. NVDA remains near its high but needs to absorb the post-earnings pullback. MRVL and PYPL move to observation only after their sharp selloffs.

Every review starts with the 200-day moving average. Group strength, relative strength, volume and distance from the high follow. Friday's close will determine the order for Monday.

## Sources
- [nvidianews.nvidia.com](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027)
- [s201.q4cdn.com](https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/Q227/Q2FY27-CFO-Commentary.pdf)
- [ir.crowdstrike.com](https://ir.crowdstrike.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crowdstrike-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial)
- [investor.okta.com](https://investor.okta.com/news-and-events/news-releases/news-details/2026/Okta-Announces-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx)
- [investor.marvell.com](https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1031/marvell-technology-inc-reports-second-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results)
- [www.federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-oil-ai-nvidia-0a655f1c042b059279343443d5802907)
- [naaim.org](https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/)
- [investors.affirm.com](https://investors.affirm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/affirm-reports-fourth-fiscal-quarter-2026-results)
- [investors.broadcom.com](https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/broadcom-inc-announce-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial)
- [www.ismworld.org](https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/)
- [www.bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched_list.htm)