WickedDesk Weekly #012: Bitcoin moves higher

After three weak sessions, the major U.S. indexes turned higher on Thursday. At 12:14 p.m. ET, SPY was up 0.98%, QQQ 1.11% and DIA 1.10%. IWM was up only 0.32%. Technology carried the rebound while smaller stocks continued to lag.

That matters because Friday is still missing. The August U.S. jobs report arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET. It can immediately change rate expectations and the valuation of growth stocks. This issue is therefore built as preparation for Friday. The final weekly close will be added only after the session ends.

The WickedDesk market signal stands at Yellow 65 on Thursday evening. New long positions are possible, but not indiscriminately. A strong catalyst, a leading group and heavy volume still need to appear together.

SPY and QQQ are trading close to their intraday highs, which points to solid demand. IWM is clearly weaker. Until smaller stocks catch up, leadership is not broad enough to treat the rebound as a free pass.

ADP reported only 38,000 new private sector jobs for August. July was revised to 46,000. Weekly initial jobless claims rose slightly to 206,000. This is not a collapse, but hiring is losing speed.

The ISM report points in the same direction. Services are expanding strongly, yet the employment index stayed below 50 for a second month at 47.8. Friday is therefore about more than the payroll headline. Wage growth, unemployment and revisions will matter as well.

The ISM Services PMI rose from 54.1 to 55.4 in August. Business activity reached 61.7 and new orders 60.9. Those are firm growth readings.

Prices are the problem. The prices index rose to 72.6, its highest level since August 2022. Investors are left with a narrow path. Slower hiring could limit rate hikes, but persistent price pressure leaves the Federal Reserve little room.

Snowflake, Dell and Broadcom show why an earnings report alone does not build a watchlist. All three companies reported strong growth. Their stocks reacted very differently.

SNOW gained more than 20% and DELL nearly 7%. AVGO fell about 4%. Numbers and guidance provide the catalyst. Price action shows where investors are actually committing new capital.

Snowflake grew product revenue to USD 1.49 billion, up 37% from a year earlier. Total revenue rose 35% to USD 1.55 billion. Full year product revenue guidance was raised from USD 5.84 billion to USD 6.07 billion.

The stock jumped more than 20% and is trading just below its 52 week high. RS 96, a 54.8% three month gain and a price well above the 200 day moving average make the message clear. SNOW belongs on the watchlist. After a move this large, the next test is whether it can hold the new area.

Dell reported quarterly revenue of USD 47 billion, up 58% from a year earlier. The order data matter even more. The company booked USD 60.9 billion of AI server orders during the quarter. AI server revenue reached USD 16.4 billion and ending backlog stood at USD 95 billion.

DELL gained nearly 7% on Thursday and sits less than 1% below its 52 week high. Relative strength is 99. The stock is far above its 200 day moving average. That is leadership, but it is also a reason not to force an entry.

Broadcom grew revenue to USD 29.6 billion, an 86% increase. AI semiconductor revenue reached USD 16.7 billion and grew 221%. The company expects total fourth quarter revenue of about USD 34.8 billion.

AVGO still fell about 4%. In the WickedDesk scanner, the stock sits almost 5% below its 200 day moving average, carries RS 34 and trades roughly 30% below its 52 week high. An impressive report is not enough for the watchlist. Price needs to recover first.

HPE reported USD 12.2 billion in revenue, up 34%, and raised its full year outlook. Cloud and AI revenue reached USD 9.0 billion, while AI backlog rose to USD 7.6 billion.

The stock was down more than 5% on Thursday. It remains above the 200 day moving average but sits below the 50 day and roughly 25% below its yearly high. HPE therefore ranks behind DELL.

Pharma remains number one in the intermediate ranking. Gold and silver miners follow, both up more than 32% over the last month. Cloud computing ranks fourth and gained 4.26% on Thursday. Much of that daily move came from Snowflake.

Rank and daily change answer different questions. Pharma and precious metal miners have the longer confirmation. Cloud just received a fresh catalyst. Both deserve attention, but for different reasons.

SNOW leads the day, but the group contains more than one name. GTLB, OKTA and ESTC also rank among its leaders. One month breadth stands at 68.4%. That is solid, not overwhelming.

The next test is straightforward. If SNOW holds its gap and more cloud stocks join, one earnings report can become a group move. If the gap quickly fails, it was only a strong single stock reaction.

Atlassian is less than 1% below its 52 week high. The stock gained 4.4% on Thursday, is up 72.6% over one month and 92.7% over three months. RS 98 confirms its leadership.

The stock is almost 79% above the 200 day moving average. TEAM is a useful study, but that does not make it an automatic entry. It needs a tight base or a controlled pullback.

Bitcoin gained more than 4% on Thursday to about USD 80,700. Price is back above the 21, 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages. After a sequence of lower swing highs, this is the first technical improvement worth taking seriously.

One strong day does not make a new uptrend. Follow through above the breakout area and the reaction to Friday's jobs report matter next. A close back below USD 75,674 and then USD 71,781 would materially weaken the improvement.

HOOD gained nearly 15%, trades 29.6% above the 200 day moving average and carries RS 91. COIN gained almost 11%, but sits only 0.7% above the 200 day and more than 51% below its 52 week high. MSTR rose 13%, yet remains just below its 200 day. RIOT, MARA and CLSK also posted large daily gains while their intermediate structures remain weak.

This is the difference between a Bitcoin rebound and confirmation across the crypto complex. Bitcoin can move first. For broad confirmation, liquid stocks must reclaim their long term averages and stay above them.

Robinhood combines the daily push with better intermediate strength. The stock gained 14.9% and volume ran at 1.77 times normal. One month performance is 32.7% and three month performance is 39.4%.

The stock still trades about 20% below its yearly high. That leaves room but also shows the prior high has not been reclaimed. HOOD goes on the watchlist. The consolidation after this large move will decide whether it becomes a setup.

Coinbase gained almost 11% on Thursday. Price is only 0.7% above the 200 day moving average. That makes the next session more important than the jump itself.

If COIN holds the 200 day and builds a base above it, the structure improves. A quick failure would show that Bitcoin strength is not yet transferring cleanly into Coinbase. RS 59 remains too low for a true leader.

Strategy reacts strongly to Bitcoin but still fails the first test. Price is just below the 200 day moving average, RS is 28 and the stock remains almost 66% below its 52 week high.

There is no reason to study a stock for a new long entry while it remains below the 200 day moving average. MSTR stays useful as a gauge of Bitcoin sensitivity, but it does not enter the watchlist.

AVGO delivered record results but remains below the 200 day moving average. HPE is above the 200 day but fell more than 5% after earnings and sits below the 50 day. MSTR reacts to Bitcoin but also fails the 200 day test.

None of these names is dismissed permanently. They simply lack the confirmation required for a new long entry today.

U.S. exchanges are closed Monday for Labor Day, so the trading week starts Tuesday. GameStop then releases complete quarterly results. Preliminary numbers point to USD 780 million to USD 800 million of revenue, USD 150 million to USD 170 million of operating income and a large contribution from its eBay investment. Oracle reports after the close on Thursday. The key question is whether cloud infrastructure and AI bookings can maintain their pace.

U.S. producer prices also arrive Thursday. Consumer prices and real earnings follow Friday. The central issue therefore remains in place. Growth is present, but yields still influence how much investors will pay for it.

U.S. markets open Tuesday after Labor Day. SNOW needs to hold its earnings gap. DELL should trade in a tight range after its price jump. HOOD is currently the strongest liquid crypto proxy. COIN stays on the watchlist only if price remains above the 200 day moving average. TEAM is too extended for an early entry and remains a study for a later base.

U.S. producer prices arrive Thursday. Consumer prices and real earnings follow Friday. If yields rise, high growth stock valuations face more pressure. If yields fall, that pressure eases. If GTLB, OKTA and ESTC follow SNOW's gap, one stock reaction becomes a group move. If the push remains confined to SNOW, the watchlist stays short.