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A new revenue calculation at OpenAI raises questions about financing the AI buildout. Also inside: oil, gas, rates, earnings and the stock studies we are following into next week.
Open issueMicron reports $54.2 billion in quarterly revenue and expects more next quarter. Its stock is still below its summer high. Yields remain high while US hiring barely grows. Buyers return to Bitcoin ETFs after an outflow day. We look at the company reports, follow the stocks from the previous issue and examine next week’s calendar.
Open issueThe Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 closed at records on Tuesday. Over the next two days the ten-year Treasury yield rose from 4.96 to 5.18 percent, its highest close of the year, and the 30-year mortgage rate moved above 7 percent. Breadth under the index stays weak, but genomics and cybersecurity lead the theme ranking. This issue follows last week's list, shows how MRNA completed its breakout and explains which stocks now belong on the study list.
Open issueThe ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan raised rates within eight days. The broad market weakened into Wednesday, then SPY and QQQ turned higher on Thursday with broad participation. Only 36 percent of screened stocks trade above their 50 day line, while genomics and cybersecurity lead the theme ranking. This issue follows where buyers remain, what became of last week's watchlist and why MRVL and MRNA now belong on the list.
Open issueOil remains above $100 despite Friday’s decline. The ECB raises rates and US consumer prices rise 3.4% from a year earlier. Also: the rebound into the weekly close, Oracle and Adobe after earnings, and our watchlist ahead of the Fed meeting.
Open issueBitcoin is up more than 4% near USD 80,700 on Thursday. Major U.S. indexes are rebounding and cloud computing is lifted by Snowflake. HOOD leads the listed crypto names, COIN sits just above its 200 day moving average and MSTR remains below it. Friday's U.S. jobs report will decide whether the rebound can produce a convincing weekly close.
Open issueNvidia confirmed demand for AI compute with $96.2 billion in revenue. Friday's price action shows why a strong report is only the first test. Cloud Computing leads the theme ranking, while the early broad-market gains were sold by 12:25 ET. QQQ is down 0.69% and IWM is down 1.32%. The NAAIM Exposure Index is at 102, showing very aggressive positioning among active U.S. investment managers.
Open issueThis was not a simple risk-on week. Long-end Treasury buybacks, a midweek drop in yields and a strong bitcoin impulse met hawkish Fed minutes, weak breadth and harsh reactions to consumer numbers. Friday brought strong PMIs and a modest index rebound, but no all-clear from the long end. The market signal remains yellow 55 based on the HIVE snapshot. Bitcoin, MRNA, DE and ROST moved hard, while WMT warned through price. This issue separates liquidity impulse, real group leadership and stretched reactions.
Open issueThe week was broader than neoclouds. U.S. indexes entered Friday near records, but the WickedDesk market signal is only yellow at 69. Inflation, oil, yields, retail sales, AI hardware and selective earnings reactions shaped the tape. Neoclouds remain the focus because CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Riot, TeraWulf, Applied Digital, Cipher and Hut 8 show how large the AI infrastructure cycle has become. The basket is not confirming as one group: NBIS leads, IREN improves, CRWV recovers, while HUT, RIOT, CIFR and WULF still lack clean price confirmation.
Open issueThe week the bar moved higher again. Palantir accelerates to 93% revenue growth and gains 29% in a single day. AMD doubles its data center business, beats on both lines and loses 7.0% the next day. Sezzle beats and raises, then halves in two days. The market signal holds yellow between 51 and 66 all week. Then the jobs report lands at minus 23,000, on the wrong side of zero, yields fall, and Friday turns the weakness into a record close for the S&P 500. The weekly tally: S&P 500 +3.5%, Nasdaq +5%, Dow +3%, the best week since April for all three. The signal stands at 77 green after the bell and held that value overnight; the detailed Friday breadth recompute was still pending on Saturday morning and follows in issue 009.
Open issueThe week the market sorted the capex trade. Microsoft posts 41 billion dollars of quarterly investment and gains 15% because Azure accelerates to 43% growth. Amazon lifts its capex guide toward 220 billion and jumps 12% because AWS grows 37%, its fastest pace in 18 quarters. Meta raises spending too and loses 7% because only 784 million dollars of free cash flow are left. In between sits a Fed Wednesday with the first triple dissent toward a hike since 2016 and a 1,153-point Dow loss. The week still ends green across all three indexes, the market signal holds 54, and breadth remains the open bill.
Open issueAlphabet and Tesla deliver record revenue, raise their spending plans and get punished with 7% and 14% daily losses. The week ends lower for all three indexes, the Nasdaq down 2.0% and the S&P 500 down 1.2%. The regime score still holds yellow at 54 because leadership has not broken down. It simply sits with different groups than before: semiconductors are back at rank 2, energy climbs from rank 21 to 12 while Brent tests $100, and refiners gain against a falling tape.
Open issueRecord TSMC results and strong bank profits were not enough to carry the artificial-intelligence complex. The regime score fell from 65 to 55 and only 33.4% of stocks closed higher, while cybersecurity, healthcare and selected refiners formed the narrow leadership.
Open issueDow record, Iran shock, semiconductor recovery: the regime score fell from 49 to 41 and sits at 64 intraday on Friday. Capital rotates into healthcare and cybersecurity while semiconductors defends rank 1 on crumbling monthly momentum.
Open issueShort US trading week with indices higher on the week and the strongest quarter since 2020. The break came Wednesday and Thursday, when Meta renting out excess AI compute questioned the scarcity assumption behind AI infrastructure and semis, memory and robotics were sold. The softer jobs report was relief, not the trigger. Robotics stays on the list, and the plan starts with rotation, Matrix strength and the strongest supply chains.
Open issueA crash week on the surface, a rotation underneath. The Nasdaq lost 4.7% and technology was the weakest sector at minus 5.2%, yet healthcare led at plus 6.7%, the Dow and Russell closed higher, and 60.7% of stocks rose. A memory selloff from Asia sank the chips, Micron's record report pushed back, Apple fell on price hikes, and a hot inflation print kept the regime on yellow. This issue reads breadth, not the index.
Open issueAs of Thursday close: the index trend remains intact, breadth is selective and the best rotation sits in semiconductors, hardware and a few high-beta groups. This issue turns that into a short study list instead of a broad ticker chase.
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